Beware of "Logical" Conclusions...

The Vancouver Sun (Mar 3^rd) ran a headline which concluded, based on the 28 days in Feb ‘06 vs ’05, that sales volumes are dropping and Greater Vancouver condos have “taken the biggest hit”. A reader in say, West Vancouver, could certainly be forgiven if they in turn concluded that sales of their neghbourhood’s real estate were dropping off. Fact: Feb ’06 vs ’05 in W/Van detached – up 15% and attached up 50%. Apartments saw 14 units (’06) vs 23 units (’05) – sold. Somewhat at variance with the headline. Remember two things here i) we are dealing with a small snapshot in time (28 days - approx 7.5% of a calendar year) – not even a mention of what may have transpired in the prior month (even though that was almost 11% longer – don’t you hate irrelevant statistics!) and ii) small sample sizes (time or number) can cause stats to be “logical” and erratic at the same time. Clearly an example of  using “one swallow to predict summer” – or is it?  In any event, be very skeptical of  “one month trends” whether they be up or down. Sadly, headlines seldom carry impact if worded “Is this past month’s drop in sales the start of a new market trend?”