The oft postulated “what goes up must come down” like the pendulum is believed by some to imply the Physics law of an equal and opposite reaction. Far from it here on the ‘sunny(?)’ North Shore. To explain my viewpoint we need only to revisit the tenets of Supply and Demand. A quick aside here – I do wish that the popular press and various other commentators would let go of the notion - rising average prices, GOOD – flat or any decline in prices, BAD. The stages of the cycle are natural and all should be accepted as normal parts of healthy markets. I guess that drama is more exciting when selling a position. 

Back then to “boring” supply and demand. Supply, as in number of properties for sale at any given time, is certainly up markedly on our North Shore (N/Van particularly with all categories over double the number of units offered at the end of June 2007 – from 106% to 125% to quote June 2008 figures). Keep in perspective though the fact that June ’07 was unduly low and was down from May ’07.  Fact, however, is we have a “good selection” of homes for sale now. Demand on the other hand has apparently reduced; the evidence being (again N/Van figures) the June ’08 fact of, in all categories, between 40 – 44% fewer sales vs. June ’07. I use the term “apparently” as I see a fair level of interested buyer activity in the market despite the obvious drop in number of offers being made.

The cautious nature of the “interested buyer” is not surprising but does not necessarily indicate that that group have “all packed their tents and headed off for protracted summer holidays”.  In the same vein, I believe that we on the North Shore are not yet truly into the “buyers’ market” quoted in the official press release of the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver. This we cannot really claim until (and if) prices moderate somewhat and average prices show some reduction. This we have not yet seen – see stats following. To sum up, what we are experiencing is that Buyers are cautious and wannabe Sellers are likely regretting not having put their properties on the market 3 or more months ago. Indeed, we can bet that many of the unsuccessful Sellers who listed in the 1st quarter of the year regret they listed at the price they did.

Again, visit my website to see and “hear” the new developments. I continue my commitment to keep you….  www.OnTopOfTheMarket.ca . This work in progress strives to be the “go to” site for North Shore Real Estate analysis and jumping off point for FULL market listing information.

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